The US shutdown crisis

Politics in the United States and elsewhere

The US shutdown crisis

Postby Yessica » 18 Oct 2013, 07:01

What are your thoughts on it?
Yessica
 
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Joined: 22 Mar 2013, 17:11

Re: The US shutdown crisis

Postby Caleb » 19 Oct 2013, 01:31

1. It was never a crisis. The big fuss was over defaulting on the debt and shutting down the government. The U.S. was never going to default on its debt because its revenue is something like ten times the debt payments. It would have met those payments and simply been forced to cut spending elsewhere. Most of the government could have been funded though. This is the whole problem though. The Affordable Care Act will be implemented (and become just as much of a financial black hole as any other government programme) and the debt ceiling will also be raised. American debt will continue to increase and so they'll lurch forward in a series of faux crises, solving them with more debt each time until there actually is a real financial crisis. Then there will be real problems. The media completely distorted this, amplified by the complete economic ignorance of most of the populace. It was political theatre.

2. The mainstream GOP were playing a game. Right from the outset, they intended to lose. The mainstream GOP always intend to lose because that's what they do and what they've been doing for decades. Aside from perhaps gun rights, what exactly has been conserved, politically, in the past half century? The GOP today is probably more to the left of the Democrats in the 1950s. However, the mainstream GOP are concerned about getting re-elected, so sometimes they need to put up a show in resisting the Democrats so they can say "we tried".

The GOP could have just kept funding other government programmes piecemeal and actually shown that the country wouldn't have ground to a complete halt. Once again though, they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory because that is what they exist to do. They are as much a part of this bizarre zeitgeist the modern U.S. has as the Democrats.

3. The Tea Party then, lost from the outset, because the spineless wing of their party was never going to back them. The Tea Party, at this point, seem to represent something of the last ditch effort of the white middle class not to be swallowed by everyone else. They're desperate and will become increasingly shrill, in inverse proportion to their ability to actually achieve anything. The MSM will continue to paint them (and their values and constituents) as a bunch of radicals/terrorists, etc. The white, middle class male of yesteryear is an endangered species in America now. There should probably be a breeding programme where they put the last 100 white, middle class males on a reservation somewhere in North Dakota a la Brokeback Mountain and force them to get married to one another in the hope that they can increase their numbers and eventually release them back into the wild or something. That or grap a random Tea Party protester out of DC and stick him in one of the nearby Smithsonian museums so future generations can gawk at Americanus Ancientus.

4. The GOP may be on its last legs then. At this point, the Democrats would have to screw up in a very, very big way, or whites would have to defect en masse from the Democrats and vote as a bloc for the Republicans to win another presidential election. Complete Democrat control of both the House and the Senate isn't too far off either. Demographically, the Republicans are completely done for. Look to California as the model of the future. The Democrats' constituents -- single women, all non-whites -- are only growing. If the Republicans think they're going to win any of those groups, most notably Hispanics, over by continuing to move to the left and being Democrat-lite, they're completely naive. Hispanics are always going to be pro-unfettered immigration, which will in turn increase the numbers of people on the welfare teat, i.e. the natural constituents of the Democrats. The Democrats have been failing their constituents, particularly blacks, for decades, but so what? Of course, they'll give them a certain amount of bread and circuses, but that's all. The GOP are basically dead in the water though.

I say good riddance to the GOP. If America is going to have any hope of not becoming South Africa or Brazil*, then it needs to have complete Democrat control right now so that there is absolutely no illusion about what's going on and a true conservative party can emerge whilst there is still demographic hope. Of course, complete Democrat control would be an absolute train wreck, but that's precisely the point. Things are going to have to get a lot worse before they stand any chance of getting better. Better to take all of that pain in as short a time as possible, rather than a steady decline that may go unnoticed. If the white, middle class (and Asian middle class -- why the hell do those guys vote Democrat?) can't be woken out of their slumber pretty soon, then it's game over for them and America in a couple of decades.

*Regarding Brazil, there seems to be some sort of naive assumption amongst a lot of white Americans that I've encountered online that the Democrats are "for the little guy". This is absurd. Latin America has generally been extremely leftist. Yet it also has a massive disparity between the rich and the poor and all that that entails. There's still plenty of money in those economies, and always has been, but it's all always flowed to the top and/or out of the country. It's a complete fallacy that left wing governments equal economically and socially harmonious societies. Leftists always cherry pick Scandinavia (a Scandinavia that won't be around for much longer, mind you) whilst conveniently ignoring that most of the socialist countries in the world have been/are complete basket cases. Those sorts of countries are kind of cool if you're super-rich, but if you're in the middle class, you hang on by your fingernails and you're only one economic crisis away from either 1) looters burning down your shop, 2) your net worth being wiped out by inflation or the devaluation of the local currency.

My prediction is that things probably won't ever really improve in the U.S. without major civil conflict. Likewise for the U.K. So long as they don't go too loony themselves, the net beneficiaries of all of this are going to be places such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand, and to a lesser extent, places such as Singapore or even Chile as the white middle class leaves in droves over the next couple of decades. The smart people would at least be thinking about steadily putting money offshore in preparation for that.
Caleb
 
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